Snatching defeat from the jaws of statehood

Fatah and Hamas have signed a sure-to-be-temporary unity government, adding yet more complications to Israeli-Palestinian relations in the coming months. Jeff Goldberg is on target:

1. Prime Minister Netanyahu has some breathing space. He can claim, with more legitimacy than he had earlier this week, that Israel is under siege; this will stabilize his coalition, and possibly even bring in the opposition leader, Tsipi Livni, to his coalition;
2. It’s not good that Netanyahu has breathing space. Breathing space, for him, means paralysis in the peace process (so-called). Israel must find, now — not later, but now — a formula that will allow it to withdraw its settlers from beyond the security fence, and to create conditions for the emergence of, at the very least, a more autonomous Palestinian entity, one that would become independent as soon as Israel can figure out a way to neutralize the Iranian threat.
3. The Third Intifada might be only a matter of months away. The first intifada was one of stones; the second, suicide bombers on buses. This next one will be the Intifada of rockets. I think it’s coming.
4. It is not Hamas that is changing. It is the Palestinian Authority, which is sidelining Prime Minister Salam Fayyad, the man most responsible for bringing the Authority the international credibility it needs to declare independence. This is not to say that Hamas is all-powerful; it is watching with trepidation as its second-most important ally, Bashar al-Assad, appears in danger of losing his throne, which would not be a bad thing for anyone except the Assad family.

This is absolutely correct. The Fayyad initiative places Israel in a very precarious position internationally by stealing the high ground and the momentum. Bibi’s non-policies and Fayyad’s promise could easily have convinced Europe to back unilateral statehood in the West Bank with eventual expansion to Gaza. This would have made life extremely difficult for President Obama, who would appear to be singularly responsible for lack of Palestinian statehood. 

But, in the typical Palestinian way, they have stunted their momentum and given cover for the wrong elements in Israel. I would have been tempted to encourage the Quartet to find a creative way to get the Palestinians statehood later this year assuming steady progress in the West Bank and no serious initiatives from Bibi. Now, I cannot in good faith support immediate statehood. Their right to statehood does not outweigh Israel’s right to secure borders, a right which Hamas denies them.

Like Goldberg, I fear for the hard-earned progress Fayyad has made in the West Bank. I fear that it will be enveloped by violence. By way of historical analogy, a comparison can be made to the summer of 2000. The “interim period” set out under the Oslo Accords had ended, meaning negotiations were only supposed to take place under the realm of “final status” — for the Palestinians, statehood. Thus, expectations were high leading into the infamous Camp David Summit in July. The bitter disappointment stemming from that summit fueled the second intifada ten weeks later.

I pray we are not witnessing a repeat. PM Fayyad’s two-year statehood initiative ends in September. What could instead have been a pressure-cooker strategy to make Netanyahu withdraw/delineate boundaries/do something useful instead has been ruined by Hamas. It is not inconceivable that we will see an intifada in 2011 — the diplomatic effects of which would be catastrophic for the United States.