Helicopter crashes and the presidency

Reading William Dobson’s article in The New Republic, which points out the death of the “Carter” tag to Obama’s foreign policy, I am reminded again of the randomness that guides presidential approval ratings, and subsequently reputations.

Jimmy Carter’s image as being weak was formed by a number of unhappy events, but the most embarrassing was Operation Eagle Claw — a failed attempt to rescue the hostages held by Iranian revolutionaries in 1980. In truth, the operation’s failure (which led to the deaths of eight American servicemen) had zero to do with Carter’s command and was due to mechanical issues. Still, it stained his credibility at home and broad, and it fed the narrative of Ayatollah Khomeini that Allah was on the Muslims’ side.

In contrast, Operation Geronimo was a fantastic success in nearly every regard. Landing two helicopters full of Navy SEALs under cover of night without benefit of their lights, mere kilometers from the Pakistani military academy, while anticipating enemy fire, is tremendously complex. The fact that one helicopter was lost and torched is a minuscule cost compared to what could easily have been a hostage situation, a deadly firefight, or worst of all, an encounter with Pakistani authorities. The raid not only killed bin Laden and sent shock waves throughout the world, it is proving to be an intelligence bonanza.

It’s safe to say that Obama played a hands-on role in shaping the course of action, and he made at least two critical strategic calculations that I think were very wise. One was to opt out of using B-2 stealth bombers to crater the arch-terrorist’s compound, as had been proposed by his national security team at one point. Obama was right that he would have to have a positive ID of the corpse in order to declare bin Laden officially dead. Judging his intelligence to be reliable, he decided to put American forces on the ground and find the man.

His second important call was to keep Pakistan removed entirely from the raid. We’ve been burned enough times by the ISI not to take any chances that they could tip off OBL. I have very mixed feelings about the dovish stance the president is taking toward the Pakistanis in light of the raid, but it’s clear that when the chips are down he doesn’t believe the military establishment can respond to America’s most sensitive needs. This is an alliance in peril, and the circumstantial evidence pointing to OBL’s shelter in Abbottabad with the ISI’s support should hopefully embarrass the Pakistanis sufficiently to justify a bit more clearly why we’re providing them with billions of dollars in aid.

Still, even having made these correct judgments, an Operation that failed to find bin Laden would have been in sum a disaster. Obama’s poll numbers would have tanked and his counterterrorism initiatives in the AfPak region would have been scaled back, at least temporarily. With luck, he avoided Jimmy Carter’s fate. With skill and daring, he made the affair into an unambiguous right of bragging.